How Much Snow Will Fall In Japan This Winter? Latest Predictions For The 2026/27 Ski Season

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is predicting a milder-than-average winter across Japan for the 2026/27 season. Its outlook points to warmer temperatures in many regions, with snowfall expected to vary considerably between Hokkaido and Honshu.

Analysis from Ski Asia suggests that Hokkaido may be better placed than Honshu, particularly because its weather patterns can be more resilient when conditions elsewhere in Japan leave skiers checking the forecast—and hoping for a little extra snow.

On Hokkaido’s Japan Sea side, where Niseko is located, there is a 40% chance of below-normal snowfall, a 40% chance of near-normal snow and a 20% chance of above-normal snowfall.

Temperatures are also expected to be somewhat warmer than average. However, the outlook is more balanced than in many parts of Honshu, with a 40% chance of above-normal temperatures, a 40% chance of near-normal temperatures and a 20% chance of below-normal temperatures.

Hokkaido often shows more resilience during weather patterns that can reduce snowfall in Honshu. Niseko’s location and local conditions may help it continue producing plenty of snow, even if other regions have a less impressive winter.

That does not guarantee a powder-filled season—but Hokkaido may still have a few snowy surprises tucked beneath its famous deep powder.

The outlook is less exciting for parts of Honshu, particularly along the Sea of Japan coast. In Tohoku, Hokuriku and the Sanin area of Kinki, there is a 50% chance of below-normal snowfall, compared with 30% for near-normal snow and 20% for above-normal snowfall.

Temperatures are also expected to be warmer than usual across much of the island. Hokuriku, Kanto-Koshin—which includes Nagano and Nozawa Onsen—Kinki, Chugoku, Tokai and northern Kyushu all have a 60% chance of above-normal temperatures. Tohoku has a 50% chance.

That does not mean Honshu is destined for a snow-free winter. Seasonal forecasts deal in probabilities, and one or two powerful storms can quickly turn the forecast on its head. Still, the overall signal suggests that some Honshu resorts may have to work a little harder for their powder this season.

For now, Hokkaido looks better placed, while Honshu faces a greater risk of warmer temperatures and below-average snowfall. But winter weather has a habit of ignoring expectations—and a few well-timed storms could still turn the 2026/27 season into a full-blown powder party.

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