Japan’s latest census records fewer residents but more households nationally, with sharply different local trends. We examine what the figures mean for property buyers in Niseko, Sapporo and beyond.
Niseko Town was one of just nine Hokkaido municipalities to record population growth in Japan’s latest census, increasing by 4.9% to 5,324 residents between 2020 and 2025, while Hokkaido’s population fell by 4.7%. For property buyers, that contrast is more useful than either number on its own.
Published on 29 September 2026, the final census results put Japan’s population at 122.97 million as of 1 October 2025, down 3.17 million, or 2.5%, from the previous census. It was the largest decline in both numbers and percentage terms since the survey began in 1920. The national direction is clear, but understanding what it means for an individual property requires a closer look at households, neighbourhoods and the people who will actually use it.
Fewer people, more households
One of the most important findings for housing sits beneath the population headline. Japan recorded approximately 57.18 million private, or non-institutional, households—an increase of around 1.48 million over five years. Average household size fell from 2.21 people to 2.10.
When people live in smaller households, fewer residents can still occupy more homes. That matters when assessing housing demand, but household growth should not be mistaken for a forecast of rising property prices. The figures do not tell us whether those households need modest rental apartments, family houses or something else, what they can afford, or whether existing and newly built homes already meet their needs.
For a buyer, the useful question is therefore not simply whether the population is growing. It is whether the particular property matches a demonstrable source of demand.
The picture changes at the local level
Hokkaido’s total household count fell slightly, but several local areas moved in a different direction:
Kutchan recorded fewer residents but more households; Sapporo did the same, while its central Chūō Ward grew on both measures. These are different patterns, not a single Hokkaido property story. The implication is to work down from the national picture to the municipality, then to the neighbourhood and the intended use of the property. Even a growing district is not evidence that every building within it will find a buyer or tenant at the asking price.
Niseko Town is not the whole Niseko market
There is an important geographical distinction here. Niseko Town is a municipality, whereas the resort destination extends beyond its boundaries: Hirafu and Hanazono are in neighbouring Kutchan. Niseko Town’s growth should therefore not be presented as a population figure for the entire resort area.
There is also a distinction between residents and visitors. The census counts usual residents, generally people who have lived, or expect to live, at an address for at least three months. It is not a measure of annual tourist visits, holiday-rental bookings or second-home purchases. Its results are relevant to the community around a resort property, but they cannot tell an owner how many nights that property will let.
What buyers should investigate
For a long-term rental, the next checks should include local employment, achieved rents, vacancies and competing accommodation. For a holiday property intended to generate income, examine booking performance, seasonal occupancy, operating costs and forthcoming accommodation supply. A growing household count cannot answer those questions, just as a busy holiday season cannot establish year-round residential demand.
For someone buying primarily for personal use, the questions are different again. Will the location offer the shops, healthcare, transport and other services needed for the way they intend to live? Is reliable property management available while they are away? What would make the home attractive to another buyer when the time comes to sell?
Population decline deserves particular attention where a purchase depends on continued local demand or the availability of essential services. Equally, growth should prompt questions about its causes and durability rather than an assumption that prices must follow. Neither a low asking price in a shrinking town nor a fashionable address in a growing one removes the need to assess the property on its own merits.
Japan’s population decline is a reason to examine a property’s local demand more carefully—not a substitute for doing so. The value of the census is that it helps buyers ask better questions, rather than offering a single answer for an entire country.