Hokkaido Shinkansen extension to Sapporo delayed at least 8 years, opening date still uncertain
The long-awaited extension of the Hokkaido Shinkansen from Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto to Sapporo has been officially delayed by at least eight years, with potential for further setbacks, according to a recent report from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
Initially targeted for completion by the end of fiscal year 2030, the extension is now expected to open around the end of fiscal year 2038. This delay follows a detailed examination by an expert panel convened to review ongoing construction issues.
Significant delays have occurred primarily due to challenges encountered in constructing three critical tunnels—the Oshima Tunnel (between Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto and Shin-Yakumo), the Yotei Tunnel (between Oshamanbe and Kutchan), and the Sasson Tunnel (between Shin-Otaru and Sapporo). These sections have faced substantial geological obstacles, unexpected ground collapses, and construction interruptions.
For instance, the Oshima Tunnel’s Daibayama section experienced a year-long suspension due to ground collapse, and further geological complications have delayed its completion to November 2030, over six years behind schedule. Similarly, the Yotei Tunnel faced disruptions when excavation encountered large rock formations, extending its timeline by over two years. The Sasson Tunnel has also seen multi-year delays due to challenging geological conditions.
Taking into account ongoing issues like labor shortages, work-hour regulations, and additional construction complexities, the civil engineering aspects of the project are now projected for completion in November 2030, six years later than originally planned. Track installation, electrical work, and extensive testing—including assessments for increased train speeds up to 320 km/h—are now expected to conclude by February 2039.
The Ministry's expert panel confirmed the initial report by the Railway Transport Organization, stating that completing the project by the end of fiscal year 2030 is indeed unrealistic. They also cautioned about additional risks that could cause further delays, including unforeseen geological conditions, limited construction company availability, and potential damage to infrastructure.
In response, Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Hiromasa Nakano instructed the Railway Transport Organization to clearly communicate the revised timeline to local stakeholders, revisit the overall construction schedule once tunnel completion becomes more predictable, and collaborate closely with local governments to expedite the project.
The Railway Transport Organization expressed regret and apologized for the significant delay, pledging to clarify the opening date as soon as possible. JR Hokkaido President Yasuyuki Watanuki acknowledged the negative impact of the delays and committed to reviewing preparations for the eventual opening, emphasizing the necessity to mitigate management repercussions.
